It’s the round we’ve all been waiting for. This is the one that will determine this year’s belt holder… the 2008 AI Champion. It seems a bit of a mismatch. If this were a real boxing match, the tale of the tape would look pretty ugly for David Archuleta. I think Cook has at least 8 inches of height advantage and probably at least that much of a reach advantage. Plus, he plays the guitar… which is way better than the piano in this competition. Ah… but Little Man Archie from Utah has the secret weapon in this round… it’s not a razor blade hidden in his shoe or a folding chair ringside that he can slam against Cook during the last song… it’s speed-dialing teenies that are absolutely in love with him. And it is the phone-dialing public that will ultimately determine the wearer of the championship belt.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, (by the way… it’s a good read if you’ve got a minute) I think DC should be the run away winner based on talent and potential. He has held the top spot in my rankings since Round 2. Archie has been near the top as well, but I would not put him in the same category as Cook. What makes the finale interesting is not that Archie is really the equal of Cook, but that his voting block may be enough to get him there.

I’ll be live with the competition tonight. Come back over to enjoy it together.

10 Minutes to game-time. I can only imagine what this must be like for the Davids. I played sports and there’s nothing like those last few minutes before gametime. But that was always with a small number watching. Knowing that it’s game-time and 25-30 million people are watching would be unreal. We’ll see who has their game-face on in just a few minutes.

The whole family has gathered to give me a few extra insights…

HOLY COW! THESE GUYS HAVE BEEN READING MY BLOG…I SWEAR THIS IS UNREAL (BUT IN A VERY COOL WAY!)

I can’t believe they just came out and completely did the whole boxing championship announcer thing. Somebody finally realized that I’ve been on the right track all season long. OH HECK… Now they’re doing like a tale of the tape kind of thing and a head-to-head comparison. What a hoot.

Archuleta just does not look like an AI Winner standing up there beside DC. As the judges share a few last minute thoughts, Cowell kills me with the “hate your opponent” comment. He’s in character tonight.

DAVID COOK

• Clive Davis Song Choice - Interesting observation for this choice for Cook as Davis talked about spiritual exploration. “Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For” I know that he can’t sound like Bono or U2, but he has a chance to make a statement here. He has a totally confident look about him as he kicks into the 2nd verse. It’s like he is totally in his element here. This is no U2 version, but it’s not lacking. I think it’s a strong opening flurry for DC.
• New Song Choice - Singing something called “Dream Big” sounds about right for DC. The gunslinger has his six-shooter out for this one and has a chance to bring a little rock-flavor to the annual winner’s ballad. This song really suits Cook’s voice and almost sounds like it belongs to him… which makes for a good winner’s song. Another good performance. Simon, though, isn’t digging it all that much.
• Contestant’s Choice - The World I Know is not a song I know… but it’s his last shot at securing the championship. I like the acoustic guitar and sound. This really gives DC three completely different sounds for the night. Archie will finish up with another ballad, “Imagine”, which means he will not climb out of his box all night. This is probably the best effort for Cook tonight. It’s a strong, intense, but controlled sound. It really showed his full range and versatility. A great finish. I’m really surprised at Cowell’s remarks. I TOTALLY DISAGREE with his assessment of it being the wrong song. Why would doing something he’s already done be better? Whether he wins or not, I thought it was an awesome finish.

DAVID ARCHULETA

• Clive Davis Song Choice - A good choice by Davis for the strength of Archie’s voice… the ballad. Elton John always handled these ballads with a lot of flair and even power. This is the kind of song that DA shines on. This is actually the most animated I think I have ever seen DA. We just might be in for a fight to the finish here. BTW - I think Randy is pulling for DA.
• New Song Choice - In This Moment HAS TO BE A BALLAD. First of all it’s the typical “victory” song for AI, and it’s the only kind of song DA does well. And to no one’s surprise, it IS a ballad. I really did think that the first song was one of his better performances of the year. But this it the typical boring schlock that DA typically sings. The judges will probably slobber over themselves, but I wasn’t all that thrilled with it. It almost seems as if the judges are leaning toward DA. My oldest son, Zach, just said he thinks it may be because he thinks DA has more long-term potential than Cook. I don’t see it… but maybe he’s on the same page the judges are. Somebody help him before he completely falls apart in teary-eyed amazement.
• Contestant’s Choice - Finishing up with the song that established him early on as a favorite, Archie stays entirely in his comfort zone for the whole night. He’s as good as anyone has ever been on this show with these types of songs, but I just don’t see him becoming a major star. He probably has a Clay Aiken-type future. Randy finally makes it clear that he is and has been pulling for DA…. and Simon goes slightly overboard by declaring the night a KO in Archie’s favor.

FINAL ANALYSIS

It was no surprise to have the DvD finale we just had. I would have preferred someone else to go up against DC since we all knew that everything that DA did would be a ballad. I will grant you that DA did what he did with great chops tonight. He was good. But I don’t believe he’s a pop star. He can’t sing ballads forever.

Cook has been my leading contender since Round 2. He has shown week in and week out far more range, ability, skill, courage, and originality. He has been and should be the favorite. But it is clear to me after tonight that he has an uphill battle to win this thing. The judges are squarely in DA’s corner. So Cook will have to not only overcome the speed-dialers (which is hard enough), he will also have to beat the judges too.

I haven’t changed my mind about who SHOULD win… but I think I have a new name for who I think WILL win. I think DA is now the prohibitive favorite to be wearing the belt at the end tomorrow night. But DC may be totally OK with that. Somebody get him Daughtry’s phone #.

Last night gave us three songs each to compare the final three contestants. Here’s my recap from last night. (you can read the entire post here)

Archuleta did what he does best - he sang ballads well. But he also showed how limited he is with a very mediocre effort on the Chris Brown song.

Mercado displayed a lot of pizazz and spiciness along with some pretty good vocals. She is a far more interesting and entertaining performer than Archuleta, but she is swimming upstream against the judges. They are clearly in the camp of the Davids.

Cook had a misstep with the middle song by Switchfoot. Great choice, poor execution. But at least that was sandwiched between two other very good performances. He is by far the most versatile and marketable of the three. He should easily win.

The question for tomorrow night will be if the voters are swayed by the pronouncements of the judges or if they will elevate Mercado into the final against Cook. We’ll see.

Tonight we’ll get the answer to that last question. For my money, I’d rather watch Syesha perform than Archuleta, but we know he has legions of teeny-boppers and undoubtedly some love-sick women in his corner and Syesha doesn’t have. They will not be swayed. What’s up for grabs are the “Independent” voters. Just like the presidential election, this week probably hangs in the balance of uncommitted voters and how they react to last night, and how they react to the judges clear preference for DA vs DC.

Will it be David vs David….

or Cook & Mercado?

Tune back in for live coverage of tonight’s elimination. Right here!

Non-Elimination Stuff

• The best thing about the group songs is that they are almost over.
• Fantasia - I really grew to like her during the season she won because she overcame a lot and had a Macy Gray kind of voice. I still think she has the ability to sing like crazy, but I wasn’t too crazy about this song. I didn’t understand half the words and there was a lot of screaming… but maybe it’s just me.

RESULTS - WHO’S IN TROUBLE…

• Archuleta - First one out on stage is DA. There’s no way that they are going to officially declare his position, or anybody’s position for that matter this early in the show. OK…they’re doing the “going home” videos. Teeny-bopper girls everywhere (and a few of the older variety). These are his voters. this will be tough for Mercado to beat. Sheesh! (or Syesha).
• Mercado - It must be sort of overwhelming for these kids to show up in their hometowns and experience something like this. it must be somewhat surreal. I hope they all take in as much of it as they can because there may never be anything else like it again. I understand the tears. They are certainly tears of joy. Regardless of what happens, I hope the moment remains with them long from now.
• Cook - How about that… he only went to the audition to support his bro!  How’s that for a kick in the pants for little bro?  Interesting thing about watching the video segment is that it seems that Cook really does have the most diverse fan base.  It seems to span ages… and has both men and women, boys and girls.  That’s the kind of fan base that can sustain a stronger career than the purely female base that I saw for Archuleta.

Ok… we’re coming down to the wire.  Something is getting ready to happen.

AND THE LOSER OF THE “CLOSE ENOUGH TO SNIFF THE FINALS” ROUND IS……

Syesha Mercado… Well, the judges got their wish and the long predicted finale is now a reality.  It’s really no great surprise, but I thought that she really had a chance to upset Archuleta.  She has shown a lot more personality than DA and is far more interesting to watch.  She’s been in the bottom so many times, I don’t think this was much of a surprise to her.  She reacted as if it were a given.  And while I have thought for weeks it would wind up with DA vs DC, I would rather have had her in the championship round.  Oh well, it will be the Little D against the Big D.  I’m expecting Big D to put a hurting on Little D.

Good luck, Syesha.  I hope you enjoyed your moment.  And maybe you’ll have a few more.

Irish Eyes are no longer smiling as the lass from the Green Isle is free to continue her tattoo career. Perhaps she won’t blow her second chance at that career. In some ways I feel a bit sorry for her because she clearly had some incredible vocal skills. But she seemed to lack the heart of an artist. She never could quite connect with what she was doing. An artist has to have more than simple skill….they must possess a unique interpretive ability that seems to be the one missing ingredient for her. It could come into play in her new career as well, but I wish her well.

Now on to the final five…this is where it starts to get really interesting again. From what I’ve read, the numbers for AI have dropped a bit this year. I think the middle rounds are always a bit of a lull, and the songbook choices by the producers this year have been AWFUL. But this week they are rounding back into form with songs from Neil Diamond. He’s got a lot of thoughtful songs and a lot of high energy songs and this week should be a lot of fun….which is sorely needed after the last two miserable, depressing weeks. So, here we go….

1. DAVID COOK (Up, Last week #1) - How can you be up if you were #1 last week? Because he strengthened his hold on the #1 spot. I was ready to drop him down to #2 for the last couple of weeks but just couldn’t pull the trigger. Then David A came out with a pretty strong performance last week. I thought for sure DC would be dropping. But he truly surprised me and delivered a really good performance with a style I didn’t think he had in him. He has proven week after week to easily be the most versatile fighter in the competition, and barring a major disaster, is the odd-on favorite to close the deal.
2. DAVID ARCHULETA (Down, Last week #2) - Just like DC climbing in spite of maintaining the same spot, DA is dropping in spite of maintaining the same spot. His performance last week was solid…but it’s the same-ol’, same-ol’ over and over again. In spite of very good performances, he has shown that he really isn’t in the same league as DC. So…he’s dropped in strength, but holds on to the #2 spot. I really don’t think he has the ability to overtake DC at this point. It will take a disastrous performance by DC for DA to climb ahead.
3. BROOKE WHITE (Up, Last week #4) - This is really sort of a toss-up between Brooke and JC. Likability factor for both is high….which is why they are still in it. Last week had the potential to produce terrible results for either of them. Brooke had to stop the song at the very beginning and start over….and JC’s….well….it was just awful. Either of them could have wound up in the bottom, and either of them could have gone home. But they’re still here. Brooke clearly has the better voice, more skill, and I think far more marketable skill than JC, (plus I really like her), so she moves up to #3.
4. JASON CASTRO (Down, Last week #4) - As stated above, this is sort of a toss up. But there is no denying that the last round was absolutely horrible for JC. Even Andrew Lloyd Webber was somewhat stunned at both the selection and the performance. He doesn’t have the all-around skills that Brooke has, and he’s nowhere close to being in the same league as the David brothers. I have thought several times already that JC would have reached the end of his road, but he’s created a fan base that is keeping him around. He’s not nearly as irritating as Sinjaya, but he’s not much better vocally.
5. SYESHA MERCADO (STEADY, Still looking up from the bottom) - Another really good performance from Mercado last week, but she just can’t get any traction. She is better and far more consistent than JC, but she is also far more consistent when it comes to winding up in the bottom. I’m not sure what it will take for her to make it past this round. I think she’s already given the best she’s got, and she’s still finding herself at the bottom each week. Only now, she’s run out of other targets.

I don’t necessarily think this is THE TOP 5 but it’s what we have left. If I could have personally selected the top 5 it would look like this:

1. DAVID COOK - Gotta give him the props
2. DAVID ARCHULETA - A bit tired by now, but he is a strong contender
3. BROOKE WHITE - Easily the most sincere “artist” in the bunch
4. DOUBLE D (Michael Johns) - He exited too early and was just rounding into his best style
5. CHEEZ-IT - Not the Luther Van Dross vibe, but the spicy brand. If he had stuck with that, he would still be cooking right now.

Any other thoughts out there about the best top 5?

Ladies and gentlemen…. we’d like to welcome you to this evening’s special performance Phantom of American Idol. We’re not sure what happened to your actual American Idol show, but we hope you enjoy this phantom of what it used to be.

What in the world were these guys thinking when they scheduled Andrew Lloyd Webber? At least with Dolly Parton she had written some recognizable songs in the pop music world. But Webber……what the heck has he offered the pop music world? Last time I checked this was supposed to be about pop music, not opera or Broadway. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure one of the recurring criticisms leveled at performances over the years is that it was better suited for Broadway. So now they WANT IT TO SOUND LIKE BROADWAY? I feel like the coyote who just realized he ran off the cliff and can’t fly. The bottom has suddenly dropped out.

Oh well, we’ll survive this week and hopefully move on to better music for the Top Five and beyond. According to Ryan Seacrest, the contestants are in for a “daunting task”…..sheesh…no kidding. For that matter, I think the audience is in for a pretty daunting task as well….sitting through this without changing the channel. As your fearless commentator, I’ll suffer through it if you’re too frightened. So, with mask in hand, I’m ready to speak my mind.

• Syesha Mercado - She did a great job last week, but kept her spot in the bottom warm. According to news reports, the 1st spot is almost the kiss of death which means she has to hit a monster home run to make it to the next round. This music matches her talents and skills and for a second consecutive week, she comes out and does a really good job. We’ll have to wait this one out to see if she’s still got a fighting chance.
• Jason Castro - JC has been rising in the rankings over the last few weeks. I think he’s actually the weakest fighter left in the competition, but somehow he’s figured out how to stick around and be a player. I really am tired of his style, but I have to rank ‘em as I see ‘em. This song fits perfectly with his typical offering, which means it’s a bit whiny and irritating. Maybe, just maybe, he’s finally hit the wall.
• Brooke White - Brooke has dropped over the last few weeks even though she remains my personal favorite. She actually has a chance to do herself some real favors tonight since most of these songs have a high emotional quotient and she can probably connect to that element of a song better than anyone still left. She could reclaim one of the top spots if she delivers. Unfortunately, she blew the beginning. People will either give her kudos for stopping and starting again or throw her under the bus. The judges may play a big part in how people deal with that. As for the performance, she completely delivered the genuineness of the song.
• David Archuleta - DA has one speed and it is the ballad. So he will probably do quite well tonight, but I’m just tired of all the ballads. Wouldn’t it be a nice surprise for AI to have some fun music? No such worry for tonight, and no such worry with DA’s song selections. He doesn’t stray far from the farm. DA will be in his comfort zone yet again. As usual, his performance is really good, but it’s nothing we haven’t heard 8 times already. Then again, I guess if you know what you do well, then you should do it, and I guess you have to give him credit for that.
• Carly Smithson - The girl from the Green Isle brings her power vocals and her power tattoos to the stage to do ALW. If she holds true to form, she’ll power her way through something while totally singing past the content and the audience. I’m sure she’ll find something with lots of gymnastics, but I no longer have high expectations of her. At least this song, Jesus Christ Superstar, has more energy than anything that has passed for music so far tonight, but she just seems to be all over the map. It was the most entertaining song, but I didn’t think she really connected with the lyric.
• David Cook - Will he be able to bring some emo-grunge-rock feel to one of these songs? He has proven to be the most innovative fighter in this bout, but it will take his best stroke of creative genius to date to be able to make this work. Maybe he will bust out the voice box…wouldn’t that be interesting….the Phantom wailing through a voice box. He’s slipped in the last two weeks IMO, and could be ready to share space at the top with DA. DC is actually surprising me with his ability to do a song in a style that I didn’t think he had in him. Here’s the difference between him and Archuleta…he can do more than one thing. I think that will be the ultimate separation between them.

SURPRISING PERFORMANCES OF THE NIGHT

• Good
  • David Cook - Really surprised at his ability to do what he did tonight.
  • Mercado - A second consecutive week that I think she exceeded expectations
• Bad
  • Jason Castro- Painful….that’s about all I can say about that performance
  • The AI Producers - What a terrible choice of music for this show. I can only hope they never go down this road again.
• Most Enjoyable
  • NO ONE - I’m just protesting two consecutive weeks of depressing music. I won’t put anyone in this position again until they’re singing fun music. I have made my stand.

Final Round Seven Scoring Analysis

• Obviously DA and DC will be safe. Which means one other person is fighting for the right to be left out of the bottom three. I also think think that Castro and Brooke will be in the bottom three. That leaves Mercado and Smithson with a coin toss about which group they end up in. I think it could go either way. I’m hoping that the train-wreck that was JC will not get back on the tracks.

“May I take your order?” …. “Yes…I’d like one bucket of KLC to go, please!”

If you like your sustenance deep-fried and crispy, you’re out of luck on AI for the rest of the season. The last remaining countrified contestant took the last punch she could withstand last week and went down for the last time. After becoming a near-permanent fixture in the bottom three, KLC finally got the hook. What’s surprising is that she actually seemed to be getting better. The first 2-3 weeks were almost unbearable, but something happened and she began to make progress. Her pick of “Proud To Be An American” was a stroke of genius and I really thought she might make it to the top 5. But, I’m not cryin’ in my grits over her departure either. This has become a very up and down sort of season with contestants rising and falling and rising again and falling again. There have really only been two consistent performers so far which makes everybody vulnerable. So, with that said, on to this week’s rankings.

1. David Cook (STEADY, Last week #1) - I didn’t really care all that much for what DC did last week. I thought it was a step backward for him, but all of the judges took a different point of view. I really don’t care if the judges disagree with me or not, I didn’t dig it, and I didn’t think it was “all that”. Still, he has enough good-will built up from a string of rock-steady performances that I’m still not ready to drop him a spot here. But he is teetering on the edge of dropping.
2. David Archuleta (STEADY, Last week #2) - No change here either. The kid consistently delivers high-quality performances. It’s just that they almost all sound alike. If that’s what you like, you must be absolutely loving this kid. If you like it in small doses, a little goes a long way. This is his primary weakness. Give him a ballad and he’s gold. Give him something else and he suffers by comparison. The speed-dial element still makes him a strong candidate to take it all, but I’m not quite convinced yet that he’ll get there. Another solid week by DA, and another slightly off week by DC could rearrange these two.
3. Jason Castro (UP, Last week #4) - For the second consecutive week I’m forced to rank this guy in a place I do not think he deserves. It’s not that I have a personal vendetta against him, but I just honestly don’t think he’s that good. But he’s still here. The difference between him and KLC is that he has a lot more personality. I think that’s what’s keeping him alive. And quite honestly, I think it has him ahead of the rest of the gals.
4. Brooke White (DOWN, Last week #3) - Brooke and JC have shuffled spots in this week’s ranking. If you offered a recording contract today to both BW and JC, she would run rings around him in sales and tickets. But we’ve learned that AI is not always about identifying the most marketable or promising entertainer. BW has the potential to be an amazing artist. I believe she will be successful regardless of the outcome of this season of AI. JC’s future in the recording business depends on success on AI. But with AI being what it is, and with Brooke falling into the bottom three yet again, I have to drop her this week.
5. Carly Smithson (UP, Last week #6) - I just really don’t get the whole Smithson thing. Every week I confess she has great skills. But every week she fails to truly connect with what she is doing. She has been applauded, lauded, and wound up in the bottom three. She’s all over the chart. Which I think indicates that there are lots of people who believe in her overall talent, but don’t believe in her performance. And they can’t make up their mind. She is in this spot purely because she did not wind up in the bottom three last week, but I still think she should have gotten the exit cue cards last week.
6. Syesaha Mercado (STEADY, bottom feeders don’t move a lot) - Mercado actually out-fought Smithson last week, but got no credit for it. As with Smithson, she has real talent. But unlike Smithson, she HAS consistently wound up in the bottom. Even when she delivered a stellar performance, she would up in the bottom. That spells disaster. When you can’t rise above the bottom three when you deliver what was possibly the best performance of the night, I think you need to get out the oxygen bottles, because she is on life-support.

Early in the early rounds of the competition, predicting who will get knocked out is relatively easy. The middle rounds prove to be pretty challenging as contestants disappear and new voting alliances form. It’s also a time when contestants are finding their stride or losing steam. Which makes the middle rounds pretty unpredictable. I think the only safe bet is that DC and DA are safe and everyone else is up for grabs. Once we say goodbye to a couple more, it will stabilize again, but right now it’s a crap-shoot. Stay tuned tomorrow night for Round 7 analysis.